Savoie Stock Analysis

Exceptional Return of 71.63% in 2010 for Savoie Stocks

2011-01-04T00:17:00.006-05:00

The Savoie stock portfolio has outperformed all major indices by a landslide. By investing in high growth and commodities stocks, the portfolio has been able to deliver explosive gains. See the table below for the monthly and full year returns of the Savoie stock portfolio versus the TSX Composite index and the S&P 500 index.

The portfolio is clearly more volatile than the major indices. However, I am able to stomach the volatility which allows me to ultimately generate massive gains with the stocks I have chosen. Here are some graphs to show my performance versus the TSX composite on a percentage basis and also what an investment of $10,000 would have become if it was invested in my portfolio.

Savoie raises price target on Deckers

2010-11-24T08:40:00.002-05:00

Based on the amazing Q3 earnings and positive outlook and given the fact that November and December are the best months for Deckers, I've raised my price target to $84/share for DECK. If you're still in this one, I suggest you hang on for the Christmas rally. Given that our entry price was around 45$, this target would represent a 87% increase in share price in 4 months. If you were to sell at today's price of $70 then you would have a gain of 56% which is still very good for 4 months.

Salesforce Under Promises and Over Delivers (NYSE: CRM)

2010-11-18T16:18:00.007-05:00

Shares of Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) were up nearly 8% after hours up to $125/share as their 3rd quarter results beat the street's expectations. The company reported quarterly revenue of $429 million, a 30% year over year increase. This number beat the estimates of $410 million. Operating cash flow was up to 74$ million, up 108% year over year. Earnings per share beat the street by 0.01 at 0.32 compared to estimates of 0.31.

Salesforce.com added 4,800 net new customers in the quarter. Total customers now total 87,200, up 28% year over year.

"The story here is growth growth growth" said Andy Kibbens (Co-CEO of TheMarketsAreOpen). Salesforce continues to over deliver on their promises as they continue to guide higher and exceed those expectations.

Deckers beats Q3 Estimates and guides higher!

2010-10-28T18:00:00.002-04:00

Deckers Outdoor Corporation reported Q3 earnings of $1.07/share compared to estimates of $0.93/share. The beat in estimates helped boost the stock higher after hours. Additionally, the company increased their guidance for full year 2010 earnings. Deckers is no Skechers. If you were brave enough to hold onto your shares then you benefited from the 6% rise in share price after hours. This company will continue to grow and I think its a great place to stay invested until Christmas.

Deckers to report Q3 earnings October 28th

2010-10-27T18:32:00.002-04:00

Deckers Outdoor Corporation will report its Q3 earnings on October 28th, 2010 after the markets close. If you don't have an appetite for risk then you may want to think hard about holding the stock into the earnings. Tonight, Skechers USA inc. reported terrible earnings and the stock was punished severely down more than 13% after hours. I'm not saying Deckers will be anything like Skechers, but just be prepared to stomach that kind of volatility if Deckers were to miss earnings estimates.

It may be prudent to take some profits here before the earnings especially if you've been in with me since the low 40$ range. Deckers is up about 25% since then and that's not a bad return for a few months.

Deckers reaches sell target and breaks out higher

2010-10-05T13:39:00.003-04:00

Congratulations to all those who followed me on the Deckers Outdoor Corporation from the low $40s where I started to pick up shares. This stock played out just as anticipated and it has now reached our sell target. However, by looking at the chart below we can see that Deckers is attempting to break out to new highs.

If you still have your DECK shares I would hang on to your shares. Put a stop loss below the breakout point of around $49. If it drops below this I would be out of the stock. However, if the breakout were to do a measured move it could jump another 10$ from here. Also note that we are nearing christmas which is seasonally the best period for the stock. This one is a winner and if you still have it, hang on for the ride!

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK:NASDAQ)

2010-08-11T12:16:00.004-04:00

Deckers (one of the famous C.A.N.D.I.E.S. stocks) hit a very attractive level today. This stock is on sale. What do you do when amazing UGG boots are on sale? You BUY BUY BUY! That is exactly what you should be doing with this stock right here right now. Deckers will benefit from strong sales going into the fall and winter seasons. Look at this chart below:

The stock is trading in a very nice range. We can buy here at the bottom of the range and ride it up past 50$. A good sell target would be 51-52$. I picked some up today. I will be buying more if we see 43$ or lower. Good luck with this one!

Banker's 200 DMA Bounce (BNK:TO)

2010-06-08T22:36:00.004-04:00

There was a nice reversal in the markets today. One particular stock that grabbed my attention is Banker's Petroleum. I've recommended it many times before and I believe this is another great opportunity to make some money. Back in February, BNK bounced off its 100 day moving average (DMA) and hit resistance on the 50 DMA. With the recent market weakness, BNK has broken down through the 100 DMA but has bounced nicely off the 200 DMA on May 21st. The 100 DMA proved to be a resistance level for the stock as the entire market began to sell off again. However, the stock has just come back to the 200 DMA line again on the daily chart. See below.

I believe today was a good day to get back into BNK. Make sure to put a stop loss beneath the 200 DMA (6.30$) as a breakdown below that will bring the stock into the 5$ range. The sell target is near the 100 DMA (~7.60). I'm banking on Banker's to go higher! Good luck!

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT:TO)

2010-04-19T18:27:00.000-04:00

Stocks got really cheap last Friday as well as today thanks to the Goldman Sachs fraud story. One stock that really caught my eye for a reversal was Potash. It has been in a steady decline since mid March. The market seems to be in an unstoppable bull market. Even the Goldman Sachs news couldn't keep the market down for too long. Potash made a nice reversal today off a great support level. See below for a 6 month chart with a developing trading channel and attractive stochastics.

Notice how there is a channel forming between the blue lines. Today, the stock bounced off the lower blue line with a nice reversal candle. I see the stock staying within this blue channel. Thus, an entry at these levels yields amazing risk reward potential. A stop around the 104$ level under the previous low end of January would be a good place to exit if the stock were to break down below that level. So, we see about a 4$ downside risk with 15-20$ upside potential where the upside is much more likely than the down. That is a good risk/reward scenario for me. I picked some up today, you should too!

Quadra Mining (QUA:TO)

2010-03-24T10:55:00.000-04:00

Quadra mining is looking very attractive in the 16.00-16.50 range. After the FNX mining takeover announcement, this company is even more attractive than ever. Based on the earnings released two weeks ago, this stock should be trading in the $25+ range. I really don't know what else to say other than buy QUA right here right now. Buy a 1/3 position right here, get another 1/3 if it goes into the 15.50 range, then another 1/3 if it drops to the 14.50 range (I doubt we get here but you should be prepared regardless, QUA is a very volatile stock).

Banker's Petroleum set to move higher (BNK:TO)

2010-03-01T23:17:00.000-05:00

I had previously posted a 6 month chart of BNK showing where it bounced off the 100 day moving average. Take a look here for a second bounce off that yellow line. We didn't quite get as close as I had wanted. My buy order was at 5.66 and it never got it and it doesn't look like it ever will. This thing reversed strongly to the upside today and I believe it only goes higher from here. The price jumped above the 20 day moving average and will be closing in on the 50 day moving average soon. Look for this one to break above the 50 day moving average. If it does then I see this one easily breaking previous highs of 6.50-6.60 range. Get in on any pullback. Good luck to all!

Sprott Canadian Equity Fund Top Holdings

2010-02-23T23:37:00.001-05:00

Sprott has been extremely successful over the past decade by investing in commodity stocks. They are very bullish on materials and energy and not so much on banks. Here is a list of their top 25 holdings as of September 2009. It is usually a good play to get into their top held stocks. As money comes into their funds they will deploy a large percentage of it to their top holdings which will help support the stock prices.

BNK 6 Month Chart

2010-02-21T17:31:00.000-05:00

Here is a 6 month BNK Chart with 20/50/100/200 day moving averages. Looks like were stuck near the 20/50 day moving averages right now with support at the 100 day moving average. If the stock dips near the yellow line be sure to pick up some shares!

QUA, QEC, HBM, BNK

2010-02-17T00:00:00.000-05:00

Quadra Mining, Questerre Energy, Hudbay Minerals, and Banker's Petroleum are some of my top picks in this market. They would have been extremely great buys in the recent pull back but are also good entries right now. I see their share prices continuing to rise throughout 2010. With copper, gold, oil, and natural gas prices on the rise showing great strength against the recent pullback, I see these stocks benefiting very nicely. They are already up substantially from the lows but I see them going up another 10%+ from here within the next 60 days. These are also very volatile names which can be traded on a short term basis to maximize your gains. I say buy QUA, QEC, HBM, and BNK and you will be very happy with your decision.

Timminco (TIM:TO)

2010-02-16T23:52:00.000-05:00

Timminco just released news that it will be expanding its manufacturing operations because it is running at capacity due to high demand for their metals. This is very bullish news and it is why TIM surged 24% today. I expect TIM to see a sharp rally here as shorts panic to cover their positions. TIM has been in a lot of financing trouble lately so I would doubt that this rally would be sustainable. I say get out on the pop sometime this week and be happy with your modest gain.

Banker's Petroleum and Quadra Mining

2010-01-15T22:57:00.000-05:00

BNK:TO and QUA:TO are looking very good here. The market is pulling back but these stocks keep pushing upwards. I am very comfortable holding these stocks long here. Will buy on any pullback.

TSX Composite breakout

2009-11-18T21:16:00.000-05:00

The TSX was about to make a triple top at the 11,500 range but has broken out quite nicely over the past few days. See the following chart:

Notice the triple top was in a slight downtrend. The first top at 11,585 the second at 11,533 and the third at 11,486. However, in the past week, the TSX has soared to a close of 11,652 today. This breaks the previous downtrend and I see the TSX going up strongly from here at least temporarily. Watch for the TSX to reach the 12,000 range. I suggest picking up some HXU:TO for 2x the move.

Quadra Mining Looking attractive (QUA:TO)

2009-11-12T10:44:00.001-05:00

Get ready to back the truck up on this one. Today we see QUA trading below 13.50, it is a good time to start stepping into the stock slowly and finalize your position in the 12$ range if we get there! Good luck on this one.

Quadra Mining (QUA:TO)

2009-11-10T19:21:00.000-05:00

Quadra reported ok earnings... nothing special. Sold on Monday. Looking for a re-entry point near low 13's high 12's if we get lucky!

Quadra Mining Q3 Results Monday (QUA:TO)

2009-11-08T15:58:00.001-05:00

Stay tuned for Quadra Mining Q3 results on Monday. With gold and copper prices having risen so much lately, we could see a strong boost in earnings for this company. I had previously said to buy this in the 11 dollar range and sold at 15.50. However, there may be a reason to get back into this one if the results are really good!! Keep an eye on this one!

Recent stock market behaviour mirrors that of 1929

2009-10-28T20:24:00.000-04:00

Remember what happened about 80 years ago? The 1929 stock market crash is famous as it marked the start of the Great Depression which lasted nearly 10 years. Many think this was the biggest crash of all time... See the following chart (taken from http://stevekoerber.wordpress.com).

What happened from 1929 to 1932 was a very deep bear market. However, within that secular bear market, we saw many massive rallies.

If we compare to what has happened recently in the Dow and the TSX Composite, it seems to be mirroring exactly the chart of 1929. Take a look at this Dow Chart...

A more than 50% drop from the highs to the March lows!!! Followed by a 50% rally which ended last week. In the past few days the Dow and the TSX have been pulling back sharply. Is the 50% rally from March simply a bear market rally? One of many to come in a possible secular bear market? Unemployment is still rising in the US and the US Government is in unimaginable amounts of dept!

If we continue to mimic the 1929-1932 stock chart, the next stop on the Dow will be in the 6500-7000 range within a few months from now.

Be very careful here. I would advise buying some very defensive plays and hedging against possible downturns.

Mercator Minerals, Ltd. (ML:TO)

2009-10-07T09:34:00.000-04:00

I've written about Mercator before when it was in the 2.40 range. Now we stand at the 2.90 range looking for a breakout here. If Mercator can break through the 2.96 level and stay above that, I see the stock breaking out well above the 3.00 mark. See the chart below for more details:

Notice that the uptrend outlined in red is still in good shape. We bounced off it a few days ago which was an extremely good buying opportunity. Anytime we get close to that red trend line, I suggest picking up more shares. The short downtrend outlined in pink was violated yesterday with the nice little upward move. Now if we can break above that previous black hammer candle and close above it, we are in position to move much higher. This one is looking very bullish right now. Watch it closely!

Vast Exploration Inc. (VST:CVE)

2009-09-30T13:04:00.001-04:00

Vast exploration is looking very nice here. The buy range was hit a few days ago below the 70 cent mark. This was a stellar opportunity to load up the truck on this play. The candlesticks formed after that dip below 70 cents indicate strong bullish signals. See chart below for more details:

I wouldn't be surprised to see VST break out above previous highs here and reaching the 1 dollar mark shortly. Stay tuned on this play. It will be exciting.

Apple Inc. (AAPL: NASDAQ)

2009-09-20T12:36:00.001-04:00

Apple is a hot company with tons of products which consumers are flooding to stores to buy. With Steve Jobs back on the scene, we can expect this stock to move higher quite nicely. It already had a big move from the 170 range up into the 180 range. It looks like it will continue to go higher breaking the 200 level. This could be a great short term trade for a 10% profit. I don't suggest being in this one for the long term since tech stocks are generally not good long term plays... you never know when they will drop 50% on you simply because their products are not "hot" anymore. See the following chart for more detail:

Notice how the downtrend started in 2008 with violent bear rallies. That downtrend was officially violated in 2009 delimited by the orange oval intersecting with the red line. It's been on a nice uptrend since and looks positive for breaking the 200 level before year end. I rate AAPL as a buy here.

Banker's Petroleum (BNK:TO)

2009-09-16T14:08:00.000-04:00

Banker's petrouleum is breaking out nicely today. It's been stuck at 3.90-4.00 for a while recently now moving up very nicely well into the 4 dollars. This one could move quickly. Watch it closely!

Quadra Mining (QUA:TO)

2009-09-15T21:54:00.000-04:00

"* Macquarie raises Quadra Mining (QUA.TO - news) price target to C$20.50 from C$15.50" (Reuters). These targets are almost never reached. Thus I would make my own target for this stock at 15.50$. That is the level at which I will begin to sell.

With this news, Quadra Mining's share price blew past the mid 12's up into the mid 13's - up 82 cents today. See the following chart for more detail:

With strong copper and gold prices amid a bull market, this stock should perform very nicely which is why I had previously recommended QUA:TO. The chart looks fantastic and they are likely to see very strong earnings this quarter. Stay tuned for more updates.

Horizon's Beta Pro Natural Gas 2x Bull ETF (HNU:TO)

2009-09-11T00:05:00.000-04:00

HNU Confirmed uptrend! Rally is in full force here. It's not too late to profit from this move. I would much rather be putting my money in at this point than back when HNU was trading below 1.70. I am much more confident in the direction of this stock right now which makes it less of a gamble. See the following chart for confirmed uptrend.

Notice the bullish white candle that formed today. Yesterday's candle made me think the rally wasn't strong but today's long white candle has confirmed this rally for me. We could easily see 2 or 3 nice long white candles and see HNU trade close to 4 dollars. This could be a huge move even from today's prices. It's not too late to hop on this one, but be very careful as the long term trend on HNU is still down. This is simply a short term bounce. I recommend getting in now, and selling in the high 3 dollar range. Good luck with this one.

Vast Exlporation Inc. (VST:CVE)

2009-09-10T10:10:00.000-04:00

VST had a great run recently breaking out through the 65 cent range and soaring to over 90 cents at one point. This one is now reversing here as it is due for a pullback. See back at my post on September 2nd showing the confirmed breakout candle. This was the start of the run up and we see volume picking up nicely. See chart below for up to date analysis:

Notice the breakout as I mentioned back on September 2nd. Then we see a great run up with huge volume on the long white candle day. At the top we see a reversal doji candle. These candles are usually a strong indication of a reversal and in this case is very bearish. Followed by the hammer black candle which breaks the last level of support, we may be in for further downside. The pink circle is the range you should be buying. There is stronger support here and it's where the last breakout occured so look for strong resistance around here. Get ready to pick up shares around this level for the next run up which will probably break through 90 cents and higher. This is an exciting play, keep it on your radar.

Horizon's Beta Pro Natural Gas 2x Bull ETF (HNU:TO)

2009-09-07T12:20:00.000-04:00

Natural gas is on almost every investor's radar these days and people are trying to time this thing for a rebound. You've probably heard this before but I will mention it again. Never try to catch a falling knife... And I believe that saying holds true for natural gas still today. HNU had a sharp rebound of near 20% on Friday... lets have a look closer look using a 5 minute candle chart.

Taking a look at this chart we see a clearly established floor for the stock around 1.65$. The stock was moving nicely on Friday then it ran into a ceiling at the point where it broke down on Thursday. However, the stock recovered nicely and pushed strongly through the resistance and even closed above Thursday's open. That is a very bullish sign. At this point it is hard to confirm a reversal for sure but things are looking quite good.

Let's have a look at a daily candlestick chart for HNU:

Note that HNU is still in a steady downtrend, but that Friday's white candle closed above the Thursday's black candle. This is a good sign, but since the overall trend is still down, we probably need 1 to 3 more daily candles to confirm a reversal. It is still too risky to step into this in my opinion. Keep it on your watch list -- I'm watching it closely myself.

Questerre Energy Corp (QEC:TO)

2009-09-06T18:34:00.000-04:00

Questerre is a junior oil and gas company. They are based in Canada and do exploration and development projects. This is a very attractive play as Oil prices are making a comeback to strong prices.

I like this junior play because it will likely benefit strongly from the market rally. Juniors always tend to move higher percentage wise than the market in both directions. That is, they are more volatile. This is good when you are running up with the stock, and bad of course when it starts to go down. See this chart for a better picture of what we are dealing with here.

The stock seems to be in a steady upward channel which is about 40 cents difference from the top and bottom of the channel. Since the stock is trading at such low prices, this indicates extremely high volatility. You can capitalize on this by buying when the stock is near the bottom of the channel (lower red line) and selling near the top of the channel (higher red line). Note that the volume has been very high on recent moves higher (see orange ovals).

Overall, the stock looks very healthy. My guess is you will see a pullback to the 1.60-1.75 mark in the near future. That would be a tremendous buying opportunity for this play. Ride it up until around 2.00-2.15 and take your 25%+ profit.

Stay tuned for more hot stocks on Savoie Stock Analysis.
Cheers!

Gold is about to skyrocket!

2009-09-03T13:28:00.001-04:00

Devaluation of currencies across the globe have rendered paper money close to valueless. It has been repeatedly said that gold is the only true currency and when all else fails, gold will survive.

In a depression, recession, or any stock market collapse, gold has been known to hold its own. Anyone who has owned gold over the last 1-2 years has not seen a depreciation in their asset. In fact, it has appreciated.

See the following gold chart from kitco.com

Gold has been making a flag pattern delimited by the blue dotted lines. Notice that it keeps bouncing off near the 1000 mark. However, note that the lows continue to get higher. So there is a consistent roof, but the floor keeps rising. In the market panic in 2008, gold broke the bottom of the flag but thats OK since it was market capitulation. The technicals for the flag pattern are still valid. Once gold breaks the 1000 mark, we will see it shoot up very quickly to never before seen highs.

Gold has been sitting on the launchpad for quite some time and is about to skyrocket to very very high levels. Trust the only true currency... BUY GOLD!

Copper Price Very Bullish

2009-09-03T10:12:00.001-04:00

Copper has been very bullish lately. Demand in China is not expected to slow down any time soon. In fact, it will probably pick up. Housing starts in the U.S. are climbing and infrastructure spending across the globe is fueling the demand for materials. Commodities are a great place to be, especially copper which has been beaten down so much. Take a look at this 6-Month copper chart. See more charts at www.kitco.com

Mercator Minerals, Ltd (ML:TO)

2009-09-03T09:59:00.000-04:00

Mercator Minerals is an intermediate stage mining, exploration, and development company. They specialize in copper. Currently, they have a producing copper mine in expansion. See chart below for technical analysis.

This is a very interesting play. The chart is in a steady uptrend. It appears there may be a consolidation to occur in the next month or so similar to the consolidation in May/June. This is a good time to accumulate a position. After the consolidation along with strong copper prices, this thing could really shoot up. Stay tuned for a 3.00-3.50$ price within 6 months.

West Timmins Mining (WTM:TO)

2009-09-02T15:29:00.000-04:00

West Timmins Mining is an intermediate gold and silver explorer/producer. This stock is another hot one to watch. Notice its bullish 'A' pattern. See chart.

Gold and silver prices are still in an uptrend, so the intermediate explorers and miners here could be in for a sharp bull rally if the market picks up. Watch to make sure the stock doesn't dip below that 2$ mark. If it does, you better get out. I suggest a stop at 1.94.

All in all things look positive for this one. I rate it a BUY in my books!

Vast Exploration Inc. (VST:CVE)

2009-09-02T11:01:00.000-04:00

Vast Exploration Inc. is getting lots of hype lately. As one of the most talked about stocks on stockhouse.com this one is worth taking a look at. It is breaking out very nicely. See the candlestick chart below.

The recent candle has broken the previous high set on August 25th. This is a very bullish sign. The pattern in the pink circle is a very bullish pattern and suggest this stock will break out to further highs. See the white candle on August 24th accompanied by massive volume.

This one is going to move quick. Watch it closely.

Horizon's Beta Pro Natural Gas 2x Bull ETF (HNU:TO)

2009-09-02T08:55:00.000-04:00

Natural gas has been on a steady downtrend for quite some time now. From 13$ down to below 3$ recently. Following this downtrend is the HNU (Natural Gas Double Bull ETF). This ETF has been hit hard recently by the sharp decline in natural gas prices. Take a look at the chart below.

The red lines show a steady downtrend and no signs of bottoming out. The pink lines show support levels but they are consistently breaking down to newer lows.

Why bet against the trend? There are tons of natural gas deposits being found every day and the real problem is where to store all of it? If it cant be stored, it must be sold, its a competition to liquidate inventories and the best way to compete is to lower prices. They will continue to fall in my opinion....

Why not invest in HND:TO? Double Bear Natural Gas from Horizon's Beta Pro. Look at this chart.

The HND:TO chart looks fantastic. What's not to love about this chart? It is in a steady uptrend and appears to have just broken out to even higher highs. Technically, this stock doesn't look to be done its uptrend quite yet.

Don't bet against the trend. The trend is your friend... ride the uptrend until we see significant signs of a turn around. Then move into HNU:TO and ride that one back up. You could easily see returns in the multiples on your investment.

Banker's Petroleum (BNK:TO)

2009-09-02T08:44:00.000-04:00

Banker's Petroleum is an oil & gas company in a high growth stage. It is largely institutionally owned and trades on strong volume consistently. This is a stock to watch as it has seen a huge run up recently. If oil prices stay stable around 60-75$, this company will make mega profits. Let's take a look at the chart.

Notice the enlarging channel define by the red lines. The volatility in this stock is huge and it appears we could see a massive correction down to the 2 dollar range, or a breakout to the upside to about 6 dollars. The pink line shows very strong support in the 1.75-1.80$ range. It would take some catastrophic turn of events to pull the stock below that range.

The pink ovals show intermediate support levels. It appears BNK:TO is entering another intermediate consolidation phase and is getting ready to shoot up to the 5$ mark very shortly. I would recommend playing this one by selling in the 4.60$ range to capture a nice 10%+ move.

Quadra Mining (QUA:TO)

2009-09-01T14:28:00.001-04:00

Quadra Mining is a copper miner with 80% Copper, 20% Gold. This is a very interesting play fundamentally. But more importantly, the stock chart has great technicals. It appears to be in a strong upward trend.

Note from the chart that it is in a strong upward trend. The stock will likely trade within the red lines. We have approached the bottom side of the red channel and will likely see a move towards the upper end in the short term. This likely means a short move towards 12.50 or 13.00 is to be expected.

Also, see the pink lines that show strong levels of support. Near the 8 dollar mark there is a great deal of support. Also, lately, there has been strong support at the 11.00 to 11.25 mark. The stock will probably consolidate here before its next move up.

Keep an eye on this one, its likely to make good money in the short term as copper prices reach new highs as well.